Last month in a nutshell
September was a month in which the stock market and the bond market heard the same news and reached different conclusions. The Federal Reserve raised rates by a quarter point on 16 September, its first hike since 2023, taking the benchmark to 3.75% to 4.00%. Renewed fighting around the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude up roughly 11%, and the US 10 year yield climbed above 5.2%. The S&P 500 slipped just 0.6% and finished the quarter up 2.4%, but the move was narrow. The Nasdaq 100 gained 3.3% on large cap technology while the Russell 2000 fell 5.3%, its worst month since March 2025.
Bitcoin ignored the calendar. It closed September at about $83,556, up 6.4% and its strongest September on record, with spot ETFs taking in a net $2.65 billion. The month still ran a range of nearly 17%, from a low near $74,900 on 15 September to a high of $87,400 on 21 September. A gain through a rate hike and rising yields suggests demand that macro pressure has not yet broken.
Luno’s own quarter was just as full. Luno’s third quarter took ZARU from an exchange listing on 5 August to a global FX pair on Circle’s Arc and StableFX by 22 September, with Standard Bank and Absa behind it and Sanlam managing reserves on Arc. Luno also secured a Bermuda digital asset licence, added US dollar rails through Meridian and acquired GTXN, then carried the same model to Malaysia with the ringgit stablecoin collaboration.
Data correct as at 5 October 2026.
Key themes
Regulators write the rulebook: The CLARITY Act stalled in the Senate, and the SEC and CFTC are building an interim regime under existing authority.
Settlement moves onchain at Luno: From UMYR in Kuala Lumpur to ZARU on Arc and Luno's GTXN acquisition, stablecoins are moving into institutional payments and fund settlement.
Markets hold firm under pressure: The Fed hiked and yields climbed, yet Bitcoin posted its strongest September on record and chip demand showed no sign of slowing.
WHAT’S THE LATEST AT LUNO?
LIDAC Malaysia draws 500 institutions and a settlement first
LIDAC Malaysia returned to Kuala Lumpur on 24 September, building on the 2025 debut with more than 500 institutional fund managers, advisers, regulators and compliance leaders at M Resort & Hotel. The programme covered stablecoins, tokenisation, real world assets, custody and compliance, and the conversation had clearly moved from foundations to infrastructure.
The day's headline: Luno, Halogen Capital and Kenanga Investors announced a collaboration to explore UMYR, a fully reserved, Ringgit pegged stablecoin, for real time settlement of tokenised money market funds. It would run in a closed loop of whitelisted institutions, among firms all licensed by the Securities Commission Malaysia, and remains subject to regulatory engagement and definitive agreements.
Settlement is where tokenisation either works or stalls. LIDAC Malaysia put that test on the table.
Luno acquires GTXN to make cross border payments easier
Luno has acquired GTXN, a licensed cross-border payments business that lets enterprises move money between developed and emerging markets in a single flow, settled by one provider.
Most cross-border payments still run through chains of correspondent banks. Each link adds delay, a currency conversion and a fee, and emerging market routes tend to have more links. GTXN replaces that chain with collection and payout infrastructure inside Luno's licensed footprint, settled against Luno's own liquidity. GTXN is led by CEO Dan Kleinbaum, who previously co-founded the mobile money platform Beyonic.
The timing matters. National Treasury and the South African Reserve Bank have published draft Capital Flow Management Regulations and a Draft Crypto Asset Manual for Cross Border Activities, with rules that may penalise South African institutions using this kind of technology. Luno has joined a coalition of regulated providers and financial institutions urging that final rules do not limit licensed activity.
ZARU goes live on Arc, with Luno as the liquidity venue
The ZARU/USDC pair is now trading on Circle StableFX, settling on Arc. ZARU, the rand backed stablecoin issued by BlockTower under an FSCA licence, is a founding currency pair on the platform. Luno is the primary exchange venue for ZARU/USDC liquidity.
Trades execute through StableFX's request for quote engine and settle atomically: both legs complete together, or the trade does not. Settlement is near instant and runs around the clock. Traditional cross-border rand settlement relies on correspondent banking, clears in one to three business days and ties up working capital in transit.
ZARU is fully reserved, backed one to one by rand held onshore in South Africa, and independently attested monthly. Liquidity will depend on market conditions and participant activity.
THE BIG IDEA
Congress stalled. The rulebook did not.
The CLARITY Act failed its Senate test on 15 September. The SEC and CFTC are now writing the rules themselves, and institutions are being asked to trade through the drafting.
What stalled
The Senate voted 49 to 50 on a procedural motion that needed 60 votes. That came after the House passed the bill 294 to 134 in July 2025 and the Senate Banking Committee advanced its version 15 to 9 in May. Two disputes sank it:
Ethics provisions governing federal officials' crypto holdings
Stablecoin yield, and whether it could pull deposits away from banks
With the November midterms close, floor time is scarce. The bill is not dead, but the path is narrow.
What is being written instead
Regulators are building an interim regime under existing authority:
Regulation Crypto Assets (SEC): a proposal of roughly 400 pages, and the SEC's first crypto specific rulemaking. It includes a $5 million startup exemption over four years, a $75 million exemption over 12 months, a safe harbour for ending an investment contract, and a route to override certain state registration rules. Comments close on 20 October.
Innovation exemption order (SEC): issued on 17 September, also open for public comment.
CFTC market rules: proposed crypto market regulations have gone to the White House budget office for review.
Why it matters for institutional mandates
Rules arriving through proposals and exemptions can change between draft and final text. That creates a different kind of risk from waiting on a single statute:
A moving perimeter. What counts as a security, and where it can trade, may shift mid-cycle.
Fragmented oversight. Without federal legislation, state licensing and enforcement regimes continue to apply.
Venue and counterparty exposure. Where and with whom you execute carries more weight while the rulebook is unfinished.
Where bilateral execution fits
A negotiated trade on Luno's OTC Desk keeps size off the public order book, so no price signal reaches the market. It also gives you one counterparty and agreed terms, and access through a single execution point to an expanding institutional asset universe.
Get in touch with Luno OTC Desk
QUICK TAKES
1️⃣ Jobs miss might take October hike off the table
US employers added just 29,000 jobs in September against roughly 84,000 expected, and unemployment rose to 4.2%. Odds of an October rate increase fell sharply, though traders still price a hike in December after the Fed's September move. The 10-year Treasury yield had touched its highest level since 2002 earlier in the week, so the relief was partial. For crypto, the question is whether softer labour data buys time or just delays the next squeeze. CNBC
2️⃣ Micron says chip demand is far from done
Micron posted record fiscal fourth quarter revenue of $54.2 billion, up 379% on a year earlier and its sixth straight quarterly record. Management said demand has strengthened since its last update and expects memory supply to be tighter in fiscal 2027 and 2028 than in 2026. More than 75% of fiscal 2027 output is already committed, and 26 multi-year strategic customer agreements now cover over 35% of revenue through 2030. Shares barely moved on the day, but the order book points to AI infrastructure demand still running ahead of supply. Investing.com
3️⃣ Citi lets institutional clients accept stablecoins
Citi and Coinbase announced on 28 September that Citi's institutional clients can accept stablecoin payments through Spring by Citi, with Coinbase handling the rails. Funds convert to fiat and Citi settles as bank of record, so merchants never hold the tokens. It launches in the US first. Stablecoins are moving into conventional corporate payments, with a global bank as the settlement layer. The Block
THE BIGGER PICTURE
Spot ETFs rebuild after June's record exit
Spot Bitcoin ETF flows are one of the clearest reads on institutional appetite. June was the low point, with $4.51 billion leaving US funds, the largest monthly outflow since launch. July barely registered at $172 million, then August brought in $3.52 billion, the strongest month of 2026.
September added $2.65 billion, holding firm through a Fed rate hike and a 10-year yield above 5.2%. Institutions are buying again, though each new macro surprise will test how settled that demand is.
